JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Third downs, fourth quarters, two-minute drills. These are all things used to evaluate how good a team and quarterback are when the pressure is on and all of the chips are on the table. Can you make a play when your team needs it most?
Well, unfortunately, the Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence have faced adversity and struggles on those key third downs. It’s been the reason the offense has failed to stay on the field or orchestrate long drives deep into enemy territory.
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There’s a reason third down is called the “money down;” it’s where you see the best quarterbacks consistently make plays to keep the drives and often their team’s hopes alive.
Last season, the Jaguars’ offense under Lawrence managed to convert on just 33% of their third-down attempts, 29th in the NFL through Week 10. It’s certainly not a good look for the Jaguars’ franchise passer.
On third down, Lawrence completed just 46.6% of his passes (38th / 40 QBs) and finished with a quarterback rating of just 69.1. His 69.1 NFL rating ranked 37th among the top 40 qualifying quarterbacks. Advanced metrics don’t look more favorable either, as Lawrence ranked 32nd in EPA per play on third down as well.
Part of this can, no doubt, be blamed on the offensive line, coaching staff, and receivers; however, the simple fact remains that Trevor Lawrence has to improve on third down.
Luckily for Jacksonville, Liam Coen and the Tampa Bay Bucs led the NFL last season in converting third downs at an impressive 50.9% clip. Baker Mayfield ranked second in completion rate and seventh in passer rating last season.
It isn’t just passing, however, that needs to improve on third down. The run game needs to as well. The Jaguars have annually struggled to convert third or fourth and short on the ground.
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Though injuries have been a factor, Lawrence’s ability to make plays outside of the pocket has drastically declined over the last two seasons, and it could be a huge reason for his struggles on third down.
Lawrence completed just 7 of 29 pass attempts outside the pocket last season, dead last in both completion % and EPA/ Play in the NFL. He’s as talented as they come, so there’s no excuse going forward, especially with the weapons he now possesses on the outside.
It’s go time for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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