BANGKOK — (AP) — Temporary ceasefires announced by warring groups in Myanmar in the wake of last week's devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake represent a rare de-escalation of a conflict that since 2021 has taken thousands of lives and uprooted more than 3 million people.
Experts suggest that if the ceasefires -- announced first by the opponents of military rule and then matched by the army -- can hold, they could provide an opportunity to work toward peacemaking.
A report released Wednesday by the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar said that the disaster could act as "a catalyst to foster cooperation among adversaries, reduce conflict, and lay the groundwork for peace."
“At the very least, if there’s agreement to tactically de-escalate the conflict and cease hostilities, it could be regarded as a positive precedent," said the Thailand-based think tank.
But already on Thursday there were reports of fresh fighting.
Myanmar's military seized power in 2021 from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking an armed opposition movement and a civil war.
Despite a big advantage in numbers and weaponry, the military government of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has lost control of much of the country to pro-democracy fighters and ethnic minority guerrillas, who have been fighting for autonomy for decades.
The shadow National Unity Government on Saturday said its armed wing, the People’s Defense Force, would not conduct offensive operations for two weeks in quake-affected areas to facilitate relief activities. The force mostly comprises local units engaged in defensive operations and ambushes.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance, made up of three powerful ethnic guerrilla armies, on Tuesday announced its own one-month ceasefire. Its groups control significant swaths of territory in northeastern and western Myanmar, and the ceasefire gives them an opportunity to consolidate their grip.
On Wednesday night, the army, which has been widely reported to have continued aerial bombings even after the earthquake, announced a similar unilateral ceasefire to help carry out rescue and recovery operations, to last until April 22.
All sides reserved the right to act in self-defense. Another ethnic minority group battling the army, the Kachin Independence Organization, announced its own ceasefire on Thursday.
Its announcement came as it also confirmed Min Aung Hlaing would attend a conference in Thailand this week of nations from the Bay of Bengal region.
Prior to the quake, his appearance at the conference was seen a win in his bid for international legitimacy.
He and other senior members of his government are shunned and sanctioned by many Western countries for their 2021 takeover and human rights abuses. It is Min Aung Hlaing’s first visit to a country other than his government’s main backers — China, Russia and Russia ally Belarus — since he attended another regional meeting in Indonesia in 2021.
Because the resistance forces seized the moral high ground by declaring ceasefires, his high-profile trip to Bangkok would have cast an even darker shadow on his government if it did not match them. The military’s critics were still protesting his participation in the meeting after his arrival on Thursday.
The Institute for Strategy and Policy's report suggested outcomes from the earthquake could include a continuation of the civil war, and even increased social upheaval.
At the same time, a “tactical de-escalation” could result in ”a cessation of hostilities (that) would aid earthquake relief logistics, safeguard civilians, ensure the flow of both domestic and international aid, and display a commitment to humanitarian spirit.”
A "strategic de-escalation” would require a ceasefire to be accompanied by confidence-building measures aimed at long-term political resolutions, including creating safe zones, establishing humanitarian corridors for aid delivery and facilitating joint management of aid by opposing groups, the report said.
The chances seem slim.
The military had tightened control and increased repression in the aftermath of past natural disasters, notably Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which killed more than 130,000 people, and Cyclone Mocha in 2023.
“Disaster diplomacy has, so far, rarely shown any successes, between countries and within countries," Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London, told The Associated Press in an email interview.
“The Philippines always experiences a slew of disasters, some of which led to temporary ceasefires and none of which led to resolutions of the internal violent conflicts," he noted.
After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a peace deal was reached in Indonesia's Aceh province involving Islamic separatists, "but due to ongoing negotiations grasping the opportunity rather than the catastrophe creating new peace," he stressed.
“Many lasting peace deals emerge through international pressure or mediation, rather than from disasters or work to avoid disasters,” Kelman said. “Disaster diplomacy’s lessons for now are that many governments do not prioritize peace or its citizens’ wellbeing.”
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